The methodology

Built on federal data.
Checked like it matters.

Most real estate data products are built on broker listing feeds — private data that reflects what agents choose to publish. Sunbelt Signal uses only US federal and Florida state government data: the same primary sources used by federal housing regulators, institutional lenders, and the agencies that set US housing policy. This page sets out exactly how the data is sourced, checked, and scored.

The foundations
Four commitments behind every release
Government data only
FDOR, county NAL/SAL assessment rolls, Census, FHFA, and BLS — the same sources federal housing regulators use. No listing aggregators. No private feeds.
3-tier quality assurance on every release
Every figure passes an automated pipeline test, an independent recalculation, and a manual source check before publication.
11-component scoring system
OIOS combines 7 weighted components; 4 supplementary signals published alongside. Fully auditable — no black box.
See the data behind every score
Every subscriber gets the clean, analysis-ready data behind every chart and score — check our figures yourself, or plug them straight into your own models.
How it's built
Built differently. Here's how.

Five things that separate Sunbelt Signal from every other Florida real estate data product.

01
US federal and Florida state data only
Every number comes from the Florida Department of Revenue, county NAL/SAL assessment rolls, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Census Building Permits. The same sources that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and federal housing agencies use to make policy decisions.
FDOR · NAL/SAL · Census · FHFA · BLS
02
Every figure is independently checked
Every quarterly release goes through a three-tier quality check: an automated pipeline test, an independent recalculation, and a manual cross-check against the original source document. Nothing is published until it clears all three. The checks are formally documented and version-controlled.
T1 pipeline · T2 recalc · T3 manual
03
Transparent scoring — 7 in OIOS, 11 published
Most data providers give you raw numbers and leave you to interpret them. Sunbelt Signal goes further — every covered market receives an OIOS out of 10, a composite of 7 weighted components with 4 supplementary signals published alongside. Nothing is hidden.
7 in OIOS · 11 published · fully auditable
04
Not just scores — the full data picture
Every quarterly release includes the underlying trend data alongside the scores: median sale prices, active inventory, days on market, new building permits, migration flows, cash buyer share, and price-to-rent ratios — tracked over time, county by county. The score tells you the signal. The data tells you why.
Prices · Permits · Inventory · Migration · DOM
05
County-level property data, built from the ground up
Florida's property assessment rolls are published separately by each of Florida's 67 counties — in different formats, with different column structures, and with sale qualification codes that determine whether a transaction is arm's-length or not. Getting this wrong means comparing prices across counties using transactions that aren't comparable. Sunbelt Signal processes each county's raw assessment data individually, filters to qualifying arm's-length sales only, and reconciles it against the state-level records. This is months of specialist work most data providers skip entirely.
67 counties · arm's-length only · reconciled
How the score works
7 in the score. 11 published.

Each market is scored out of 10 on all 11 components below. OIOS combines 7; the other 4 are supplementary context — every score published alongside the overall.

Price Momentum
How quickly median sale prices are moving, adjusted for market size and season
Supply Pressure
Active listings relative to recent sales — an early indicator of where prices are likely to go next
Inventory Shift
Whether the number of available homes is tightening or loosening compared to last quarter
Affordability
Median home price relative to local incomes, benchmarked against the Florida state average
Migration Inflow
Net population and household growth, drawn from US Census Bureau annual estimates
Days on Market
How quickly homes are selling, relative to that market's own recent history
New Build Pressure
New construction permits relative to sales — shows whether builders are adding to or absorbing buyer demand
Cash Buyer Share
The share of sales completed without a mortgage — a proxy for investor and institutional confidence in that market
Price-to-Rent Signal
Estimated gross yield potential based on assessed values and local rental market benchmarks
Rate Sensitivity
How exposed the market's buyer pool is to Federal Reserve rate changes, based on its financing mix
House Price Index Trend
Price index movement using FHFA data — the same measure used by federal housing regulators
Who built this
Built by someone who produced the real thing
Credentials
Background
Senior Government Statistician and member of the Government Statistical Group (GSG). Comparable to a Senior Statistician or Lead Data Analyst.
Awards
  • 2019 GSS National Impact Award — analysis to improve accessibility on GB railways
  • 2022 Collaborative and Open Award — delivering the Energy Bills Support Scheme (EBSS) to address rising energy costs
  • 2024 Government Impact Award — Led a team of 4 to transform government data and deliver high-impact analytical tools.
  • 2025 Government Strong Together Award — Led data collection, analysis, and reporting for a major product safety recall incident.

Sunbelt Signal was built by a former senior government statistician who spent nearly 20 years producing national statistics for the UK government — work published under his name, scrutinised by Parliament, and used by ministers to make national policy decisions.

"When you produce statistics that a government minister uses to answer questions in Parliament, every number has to be traceable, independently verifiable, and defensible under scrutiny. That standard does not change because the subject is Florida real estate."

Most commercial data providers have never worked under that level of accountability. Sunbelt Signal brings federal statistical production standards — source traceability, independent quality assurance, documented assumptions, version-controlled releases — to a market where the norm is a dashboard refreshed from a private listing feed.

Sunbelt Signal applies a proprietary analytical framework — developed from scratch and applied to Florida SFR data in a way no other provider has attempted. The methodology is not borrowed from a national model or repurposed from commercial real estate. It was built specifically for how Florida's housing market works, county by county.

Based in SW Florida — not observing the market remotely, but living inside it. That means the analysis is grounded in direct market knowledge, not just data feeds.

And unlike any platform or aggregator, you are dealing directly with the analyst who built it. Every subscriber can discuss findings and ask questions. That is what you are buying: proprietary methodology, local presence, and direct access to the person accountable for every number.

See the methodology in action.

Request a complimentary Cape Coral sample pack, or book a free 30-minute call and walk through a live pack with the analyst who built it.

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